No matter what happens next regarding Russian military operations in Ukraine and Belarus, the security environment in Europe and adjoining regions has been structurally changed for the worse for the short to medium term. Russia today has a preponderance of conventional combat forces in Eastern Europe. Moreover, now that Russian forces have undertaken operations in Ukraine, Putin may decide to further threaten the territory and freedom of action of additional non-NATO members, such as Georgia, Moldova, and Finland-as well as NATO members themselves. Russia has now demonstrated both the intent and capability to mass forces to underwrite a sustained coercive-diplomacy campaign and invade the sovereign territory of another nation. Russia wishes to push its influence or direct control of territory as far west, north, and south as possible, especially in the former Soviet states. economic), as is the case with China rather, it is a dynamic confrontation throughout the transatlantic theater, most heatedly along NATO’s eastern flank from the Arctic in the north to the Black and Mediterranean Seas in the south. It is not a broad-based competition for influence across numerous domains (e.g. We are now in a new era of sustained confrontation with Russia.
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